ENDURING RIVALRIES - THE EARLY YEARS

This paper develops and tests a game-based model of enduring internati onal rivalries. The model is embedded in a theoretical framework that conceives of interstate conflicts as series of temporally related game s. Transition across games is governed by learning, which occurs when actors revise their perception of the opponent in response to previous interactions. The model shows that learning can sometimes produce pat terns of repeated conflict. An empirical analysis of four enduring riv alries reveals a high incidence of conflictual games in their early ye ars. As posited by the model, learning does account for game transform ations (or evolutionary patterns), but changes in relative capabilitie s also have an important effect on how actors define their preferences and perceive the opponent.