The cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically
on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsur
ed, or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage. We estimate
the extent of crowd-out arising from the expansions of Medicaid to pr
egnant women and children over the 1987-1992 period. We estimate that
approximately 50 percent of the increase in Medicaid coverage was asso
ciated with a reduction in private insurance coverage. This occurred l
argely because employees took up employer-based insurance less frequen
tly. There is also some evidence that employers contributed less for i
nsurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents.