INTEGRATING BEHAVIORAL CHOICE INTO EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODELS OF AIDS

Increased HIV risk creates incentives for people with low sexual activ ity to reduce their activity, but may make high-activity people fatali stic, leading them to reduce their activity only slightly, or actually increase it. If high-activity people reduce their activity by a small er proportion than low-activity people, the composition of the pool of available partners will worsen, creating positive feedbacks, and poss ibly multiple steady states. Early public health efforts may allow soc ieties to reach more favorable steady states.