LONG-TERM DIFFUSION FACTORS OF TECHNOLOGICAL-DEVELOPMENT - AN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL AND CASE-STUDY

In the first part of this article, a short description of the most pop ular models of two competing technologies, the Fisher-Pry model and it s modifications proposed in [1, 2, 20], and the multitechnological sub stitution models in [16, 18], are presented. In the second section, we describe an evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biolog ical analogy, together with the method of its parameters' identificati on using real data on technologies development. In the final sections, the applications of that model to describe the real diffusion process es (namely, primary energy sources in the world energy consumption and the raw steel production in the United States) are presented. The fea sibility of using the model to predict future shares of given technolo gies and to build alternative scenarios of future evolution of structu re of the market is suggested.