SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY - HOW DO WE KNOW WHEN TO COMMUNICATE RESEARCH FINDINGS TO THE PUBLIC

The problem of when to communicate research findings with the public a rises with respect to a broad range of environmental and health hazard s. What many people would like is a rule of the form, 'Communicate res earch findings if and only if condition C obtains.', where condition C reflects some function that includes the probability of a harm occurr ing, the seriousness of the harm, the reliability of the data on which these estimates are based, and the potential usefulness of these proj ections for mitigating or preventing the harm in question. I argue tha t no such rule is forthcoming. I go on to distinguish uncertainty from ignorance and indeterminism. Uncertainty is not an objective quantity but is socially constructed by context, rhetorical role, the assumpti on of purposes, and the acceptance of knowledge claims. In a particula r case, the first step in deciding whether to communicate research fin dings to the public is appreciating how the uncertainties have been co nstructed. Only then can we go on to ask the ethical questions about c ommunicating research in an illuminating way.