MODELING BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS IN BADGERS IN ENGLAND - PRELIMINARY-RESULTS

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) appears to be endemic within the badger popul ation of south-west England. The total number of cattle herds with con firmed tuberculosis has increased from 197 in 1992 to 320 in 1993, and the badger is believed to be responsible for many of these breakdowns . Data on a high density badger population naturally infected with tub erculosis have been collected since the late 1970s. This paper present s some of the results of this epidemiological. study and shows how loc alised the disease has been over a number of years. We also describe a number of models that have been used to help understand the progressi on of the disease within the population. These are simple, within-grou p infection models used primarily to help to understand the disease dy namics. The option to add vaccination, or restructure the model for ot her species, such as possums is always available. The results suggest that TB would only be sustained for long periods in social groups with about eight or more members, and that disease spread does not corresp ond to classical epidemiological models.