THE ECONOMIC COST OF GREENHOUSE-INDUCED SEA-LEVEL RISE FOR DEVELOPED PROPERTY IN THE UNITED-STATES

Estimates of the true economic cost that might be attributed to greenh ouse-induced sea-level rise on the developed coastline of the United S tates are offered for the range of trajectories that is now thought to be most likely. Along a 50-cm sea level rise trajectory (through 2100 ), for example, transient costs in 2065 (a year frequently anticipated for doubling of greenhouse-gas concentrations) are estimated to be ro ughly $70 million (undiscounted, but measured in constant 1990$). More generally and carefully cast in the appropriate context of protection decisions for developed property, the results reported here are nearl y an order of magnitude lower than estimates published prior to 1994. They are based upon a calculus that reflects rising values for coastal property as the future unfolds, but also includes the cost-reducing p otential of natural, market-based adaptation in anticipation of the th reat of rising seas and/or the efficiency of discrete decisions to pro tect or not to protect small tracts of property that will be made when necessary and on the (then current) basis of their individual economi c merit.