PROLIFERATION AND THE PROBABILITY OF WAR - A CARDINALITY THEOREM

To determine formally the effects of nuclear proliferation on the prob ability of a deliberate nuclear war requires more than just qualitativ e assertions about the change in the probability that an individual na tion will initiate a deliberate nuclear war as the number of nuclear p owers increases. For a model to predict that an increase in the number of nuclear powers will increase or decrease the probability of a deli berate nuclear war, it is necessary that it be able to predict the car dinality of the change in the probability that any one nation will ini tiate a nuclear war. Inasmuch as this is beyond the capability of most models in economics and political science, the formal debate on this issue should be viewed with caution. It is likely that the dominant fa ctor when considering the effect of proliferation on the probability o f a nuclear war is that it will occur as a result of an accident or ot her inadvertent behavior.