Using an augmented Solow growth model with cross section and panel dat
a, we find evidence of conditional convergence of per capita productio
n across China's provinces from 1978 to 1993. Convergence is condition
al on physical investment share, employment growth, human-capital inve
stment, foreign direct investment and coastal location. We project tha
t, in the near term, overall regional inequality as measured by the co
efficient of variation is likely to decline modestly but that the coas
t/noncoast income differential is likely to increase somewhat. We eval
uate alternative policies to reduce the coast-noncoast income differen
tial and conclude focusing solely on investment by rural collectives i
s insufficient. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.