Rj. Shiller et al., WHY DID THE NIKKEI CRASH - EXPANDING THE SCOPE OF EXPECTATIONS DATA-COLLECTION, Review of economics and statistics, 78(1), 1996, pp. 156-164
Why did the Japanese stock market lose most of its value between 1989
and 1992? To help us answer this and related questions, we have collec
ted parallel time series data from market participants in both Japan a
nd the United States 1989-94 on their expectations, attitudes, and the
ories. Substantial variability within countries through time in these
data and, notably, dramatic differences across countries in expectatio
ns were found. While no unambiguous explanation of the Japanese crash
emerges from the results, we do find a clear relation of the crash to
changes in Japanese price expectations and speculative strategies.