RESERVOIR OPERATING RULES WITH FUZZY-PROGRAMMING

Relatively little of the research on reservoir operating procedures ha s found its way into actual practice. One reason is that operators are uncomfortable with complex optimization models and reluctant to use p rocedures that they do not fully understand. Fuzzy logic seems to offe r a way to improve on existing operating practices, which is relativel y easy to explain and understand. The main concepts in fuzzy logic and a procedure for applying them are explained. These are applied to fin ding operating procedures for a single-purpose hydroelectric project, where both the inflows and the selling price for energy can vary. Oper ation of the system is simulated using both fuzzy logic programming an d fixed rules. The results are compared with those obtained by determi nistic dynamic programming with hindsight. The use of fuzzy logic with flow forecasts is also investigated. The conclusion is that the fuzzy logic approach is promising, but it suffers from the ''curse of dimen sionality.'' It can be a. useful supplement to other conventional opti mization techniques, but probably not a replacement.