Bf. Hobbs et al., AN IMPROVED BOUNDING-BASED METHOD FOR MULTIAREA PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COSTING, IEEE transactions on power systems, 11(2), 1996, pp. 1024-1030
This paper presents an improved bounding-based procedure for estimatin
g expected production costs for a multiarea power system. The method b
uilds upon the approach in [1]. It uses a state space characterization
of equipment outages and loads, combined with linear optimization met
hods, standard load duration curve-based production costing techniques
, and clustering analysis. The method defines upper and fewer bounds t
o the true expected cost, and tightens those bounds by partitioning th
e outage and load spaces. Methods for constructing outage and load par
titions are compared and applied to large multiarea systems. Applicati
on issues, such as marginal cost estimation and the effect of transmis
sion outages, are also addressed.