AN IMPROVED BOUNDING-BASED METHOD FOR MULTIAREA PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COSTING

This paper presents an improved bounding-based procedure for estimatin g expected production costs for a multiarea power system. The method b uilds upon the approach in [1]. It uses a state space characterization of equipment outages and loads, combined with linear optimization met hods, standard load duration curve-based production costing techniques , and clustering analysis. The method defines upper and fewer bounds t o the true expected cost, and tightens those bounds by partitioning th e outage and load spaces. Methods for constructing outage and load par titions are compared and applied to large multiarea systems. Applicati on issues, such as marginal cost estimation and the effect of transmis sion outages, are also addressed.