A METHOD TO PERFORM PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION SIMULATION INVOLVING COMBINED HEAT AND POWER UNITS

The problem considered concerns expansion planning for combined heat a nd power (CHP) systems. The purpose is to develop a new method for per forming probabilistic production simulation. This is done by extending the probabilistic approach for power generation simulation to include heat generation as well. The probabilistic approach is based on two-d imensional probability load density functions. By convolution of the c ombined heat and power units, the equivalent load functions are obtain ed and the expected energy generation of the units, the expected unser ved energy, and the expected overflow are determined. It is shown that in the CHP system a trade off between unserved energy and overflow en ergy is inherent and therefore the analysis is qualitatively different from analysis of systems with only power units. The corresponding the ory is developed and case studies demonstrate the feasibility of the p roposed method.