EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EVALUATION STANDARDS APPLIED TO THE VAN METHOD - REPLY

Our earlier publications show that VAN method does not fail requiremen ts (1) and (2) suggested by Jackson [1996]. No subjective ex-post fact o decission was necessary for the evaluation of the success because, f or the large majority of VAN predictions, the values of Delta M, Delta r and Delta t were published before. the period 1987-1989 under discu ssion; in a few cases only (three out of 29), related with the observa tion of the new phenomenon of the SES electrical activity, the value o f Delta t was determined in 1988. Furthermore, a careful inspection -f rom physical point of view- shows that the three plausibility criteria , suggested by Jackson (to be obeyed by a candidate prediction techniq ue), are actually met by VAN-method.