Yy. Kagan et Dd. Jackson, STATISTICAL TESTS OF VAN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS - COMMENTS AND REFLECTIONS, Geophysical research letters, 23(11), 1996, pp. 1433-1436
The papers in the debate show that precise consideration of whether va
rious events should be considered as having been successfully predicte
d is one of the key issues for statistical testing of the VAN earthqua
ke prediction efforts. Other issues involve whether the VAN prediction
rules have been adjusted retroactively to fit data, how to test the p
rediction significance and, finally, the criteria for rejection of the
null hypothesis - that the VAN successful predictions are due to chan
ce. The diversity of views on these subjects suggests that the seismol
ogical community needs a general strategy for evaluating earthquake pr
ediction methods.