STEPWISE PREDICTION OF DENTAL-CARIES IN CHILDREN UP TO 3.5 YEARS OF AGE

The present study is a part of a prospective, longitudinal investigati on of caries development in children (n = 692) living in the southern suburbs of Stockholm. The aim was to evaluate, longitudinally, the car ies-predictive ability of variables describing social and immigrant ba ckground, dietary habits, microbial and oral hygiene factors, and fluo ride exposure in children at 1 and 2.5 years of age with respect to ca ries development before the age of 3.5, The predictors for caries deve lopment in children before 25 years of age were mutans streptococci (p <0.01), immigrant background (p<0.01), and consumption of candy (p<0.0 1). The predictors for developing manifest caries between 2.5 and 3.5 years of age were mutans streptococci (p<0.001), mother's education (p <0.001), immigrant background (p<0.01), and consumption of candy (p<0. 05) and sugar-containing beverages (p<0.05). The caries incidence at 2 .5 years of age as well as the caries increment between 2.5 and 3.5 ye ars of age were significantly higher in children with immigrant backgr ound compared to nonimmigrants. This study indicates that the possibil ity of identifying children at risk for caries development increases l ongitudinally from 1 to 3.5 years years of age and there was a synergi stic effect between age and each predictor.