THE DURATION OF INTERSTATE WARS, 1816-1985

We present a model of war duration which incorporates both realpolitik and domestic political variables. We hypothesize that strategy, terra in, capabilities, and government type, among other variables, will pla y key roles in determining the duration of war. We test these hypothes es using hazard analysis and find empirical support for our key argume nts. We find that the realpolitik variables play a greater role than r egime behavior and type in determining war duration. We also find that historically, on average, mobilization and strategic surprise have li ttle effect on war duration and that wars are not duration dependent.