CONDITIONS OF SUCCESSFUL 3RD-PARTY INTERVENTION IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS

Since the end of the cold war, foreign policy makers appear to be devo ting increasing amounts of energy to containing intrastate conflicts. They are doing so, moreover, with little guidance from the social scie nce community. This article uses data on all third-party interventions into intrastate conflicts since 1944 to assess historical patterns of intervention strategies and their relative success rates. Building on this, it uses a logit analysis to develop prescriptive outlines for f uture intervention attempts. The results demonstrate that it is the ch aracteristics cf thr intervention strategy rather than the characteris tics of the conflict that largely determine the success of the interve ntion.