WHAT ABOUT THE BELL-SHAPED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRIMACY AND DEVELOPMENT

This paper proposes, estimates, and tests a ''no-frills'' static two-e quation recursive model, where the size of the largest city depends on the level of development in a two-step relationship, with the total u rban population intervening as an intermediate variable. The model has the following implications for primacy: (1) contrary to Richardson an d Schwartz's (1988) assertion, primacy is indeed related to developmen t, albeit indirectly, but (2) the relationship does not display the be ll shape predicted by the El-Shakhs-Mera hypothesis. Instead, primacy as a function of development decreases monotonically at a decreasing r ate.