Since the last deglaciation, 300-500 Pg carbon have accumulated in nor
thern peatlands (346 mill. ha). While sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2
), these peatlands release considerable amounts of methane (CH4) to th
e atmosphere. The greenhouse-gas balance of peatlands may change in th
e future if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for
high latitudes. Subsequent emissions of CH4 would decrease, whereas e
missions of CO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O) would increase. Water-level dr
awdown has been predicted to enhance the greenhouse impact from northe
rn peatlands. The components of carbon cycling were measured both in u
ndrained and drained peatlands of different trophic levels, The result
s were drawn together into a single radiative forcing factor, to asses
s the combined atmospheric effects of water-level drawdown. We present
a hypothesis, based on the measured changes in carbon stores in soil
and tree stand, and fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O after water-level drawd
own caused by drainage for forestry. The hypothesis suggests that poss
ible drying arising from climate change would, in fact, decrease the i
mpact of northern peatlands on the total radiative forcing for about o
ne hundred years by c. 0.1 W m(-2). This is caused by the decrease in
CH4 emissions, fairly small changes in the peat carbon storage, and in
crease in the tree-stand biomass storage.