THE ROLE AND VALIDITY OF JUDGMENT IN FORECASTING

All forecasting methods involve judgment but forecasting techniques ar e often dichotomised as judgmental or statistical. Most forecasting re search has focused on the development and testing of statistical techn iques. However, in practice, human reasoning and judgment play a prima ry role. Even when statistical methods are used, results are often adj usted in accord with expert judgment (Bunn and Wright 1991). This edit orial introduces the papers included in this special issue of the Inte rnational Journal of Forecasting and places them within a broader rese arch context. The discussion of this context is structured in three se ctions: judgmental probability forecasting; judgmental time series for ecasting; and interaction of judgment and statistical models.