Although retrospective economic voting does not require voters to have
precise information about recent economic conditions, it is arguably
the case that the quality of retrospective voting as a democratic acco
untability mechanism hinges on the degree to which citizens have reaso
nably accurate perceptions of the state of the economy In this paper w
e test a model of the accuracy of individuals' perceptions of national
economic conditions. Utilizing data collected in a survey of resident
s of Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, during the 1992 presidential campaig
n, we depict perceptual accuracy as a function of four sets of indepen
dent variables: (1) personal characteristics likely to enhance citizen
s' political and economic cognition; (2) perceptions of economic threa
t, (3) interest in politics and/or economics; and (4) exposure to medi
a sources. Our findings point to the importance of personal characteri
stics, such as socioeconomic status, gender, race, and age, as well as
retrospective personal evaluations, political interest, and media exp
osure in determining the accuracy of citizens' economic perceptions. M
oreover, we provide preliminary evidence that perceptual inaccuracy ha
s an indirect effect on vote choice in 1992 through its effect on retr
ospective sociotropic economic evaluations.