DOWNWARD TRENDS IN THE FREQUENCY OF INTENSE ATLANTIC HURRICANES DURING THE PAST 5 DECADES

There is concern that the enhanced greenhouse effect may be affecting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. The North Atlantic b asin offers a reliable, long-term record of tropical cyclone activity, though it may not be representative of tropical cyclones throughout t he rest of the tropics. The most recent years of 1991 through 1994 hav e experienced the quietest tropical cyclone activity on record in term s of frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes. This was followed by the 1995 hurricane season, one of the busiest in the past 50 years. Despite 1995's activity, a long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes. In addition, the mean maximum intensity (i.e., ave raged over all cyclones in a season) has decreased, while the maximum intensity attained by the strongest hurricane each year has not shown a significant change.