FUZZY RULE-BASED MODELING OF RESERVOIR OPERATION

A fuzzy rule-based model is constructed to derive operation rules for a multipurpose reservoir. The case study of the Tenkiller Lake in Okla homa illustrates the methodology. Operation rules are generated on the basis of economic development criteria such as hydropower; municipal; industrial and irrigation demands; flood control and navigation; and environmental criteria such as water quality for fish and wildlife pre servation, recreational needs, and downstream how regulation. The fuzz y rule-based model operates on an ''if-then'' principle, where the ''i f'' is a vector of fuzzy explanatory variables or premises and ''then, '' of fuzzy consequences. The reservoir storage level, estimated inflo ws, and demands are used as the premises and release from the reservoi r is taken as the consequence. Split sampling of historical data (mean daily time series of flow, lake level, demands, and releases) is used to train and then validate the rules. Different performance indices a re calculated and two figures of merit, namely, engineering sustainabi lity and engineering risk are developed for evaluating the rules gener ated by the model, which appears to be easy to construct, apply, and e xtend to a complex system of reservoirs.