LEONID METEOR STORMS

Sufficient observations exist of the returns of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttl e in 1865 and 1965 for accurate orbits to be determined for these two intervening epochs. By integration we obtain the orbits of the comet a t its two returns in 1899 and 1932. Assuming that most meteors observe d in the 1965-66 Leonid meteor shower were ejected from the cometary n ucleus at one of its last three returns, we model the resulting stream and investigate its evolution. The model accounts reasonably for the observations of the showers in 1899, 1932 and 1966, We use the same mo del to predict that the showers of 1998-99 may be similar to that of 1 899 or 1932, but not at the level of the 1966 storm.