DESIRABLE DESIGN CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG-TERM MONITORING OF ECOLOGICAL VARIABLES

Long-term environmental monitoring places a set of demands on a sampli ng strategy not present in a survey designed for a single time period. The inevitability that a sample will become out of date must be a dom inant consideration in planning a long-term monitoring programme. The sampling strategy must be able to accommodate periodic frame update an d sample restructuring in order to address changes in the composition of the universe and changes in the perception of issues leading to new questions and concerns. The sampling strategy must be capable of adap ting to such changes while maintaining its identification as a probabi lity sample and its capacity to detect trends that span the update occ asions. These issues are examined with respect to subpopulation estima tion, post-stratification via conditioning, and sample enlargement and reduction. Design features that involve complex sample structure crea te potentially serious difficulties, whereas an equal probability desi gn permits greater adaptability and flexibility. Structure should be e mployed sparingly and in awareness of its undesirable effects.