APPLICATION OF A SYSTEMS-APPROACH TO PROBLEM ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN ANIMAL TRYPANOSOMIASIS IN THE GAMBIA

The application of systems analysis techniques identified a number of key factors which will determine future developments in the Gambian li vestock industry, with especial reference to traditionally managed try panotolerant, N'dama cattle, and the importance of tsetse and trypanos omiasis. Different components of the analysis repeatedly identified th e following key factors: human population growth; declining rainfall; loss of tree cover; trends in land-use including increased areas under cultivation, reduced fallowing and reduced access for grazing; livest ock numbers; prices for groundnuts (the main cash crop) and cattle; an d indicators of national wealth reflecting cash available to invest in livestock or to purchase livestock products. In many areas tsetse and trypanosomiasis appear to be in decline as a result of habitat destru ction but they are likely to persist in others where trypanotolerant a nimals face a high risk of trypanosomiasis infection and active contro l may bring significant benefits. Several of the identified trends rai se doubts concerning the long-term sustainability of traditional grazi ng on common land, although improved, intensive management strategies can do much to alleviate these problems. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.