STATE-TRANSITION MODELING OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER TO EVALUATE NATIONAL IDENTIFICATION AND RECORDING-SYSTEMS - GENERAL-ASPECTS AND MODEL DESCRIPTION

A State-Transition simulation model was designed, aimed at evaluating national Identification and Recording systems (I and R systems) with r espect to their epidemiological impact on outbreaks of Classical Swine Fever (CSF). In the model, a modified Markov chain approach was used to simulate between-herd spread of CSF. The model's basic inputs were data on I and R system, region and CSF control strategy. These inputs could be altered separately, allowing evaluation of various situations . General aspects related to the modelling approach were described as were the model's main features. To study its credibility, the model wa s applied to CSF outbreaks in Belgium. The design and results of this application were described. The model was concluded to be a useful too l for decision support regarding improvement of national I and R syste ms. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd