Wear and wear transitions are the major concerns regarding the tribolo
gical application of ceramic materials. The objective of this study is
to understand wear and wear transition mechanisms of ceramics with em
phasis on wear and wear transition prediction. There are four new find
ings from this research. First, the critical external damage stress (s
igma(D)) from a fracture mechanics model was modified to predict wear
transitions for ceramics and was able to account for the effects of gr
ain size and internal residual stresses on wear transitions. Then, the
tensile stress at the rear edge of the contact was found as the predo
minant stress which causes the ceramics to crack and leads to the subs
equent wear transitions. The ratio of the maximum tensile stress (sigm
a(max)) and the critical external damage stress (sigma(D)) was found t
o be the critical parameter controlling wear transitions. Thirdly, a t
echnique of ball sliding on inclined plane was developed for the appro
ximation of the critical external damage stress for ceramics. Finally,
a predictive wear model was developed. The correlation of the model w
ith the experimental data of alumina and silicon nitride shows encoura
ging agreement. The distinctive features of this simplistic model are
its ability to predict the wear transitions as well as estimate the we
ar of the brittle materials.