DEVELOPMENT OF OZONE-PRECURSOR RELATIONSHIPS USING VOC RECEPTOR MODELING

The results of a summer 1988 VOC receptor modeling study in Detroit we re used in conjunction with a photochemical model to examine the effec t of VOC source contributions on predicted ambient ozone. Source hydro carbon contributions determined from receptor modeling were input to t he ozone model along with initial measured concentrations of CO, NOx, O-3 and with measured temperature, uv, pressure and relative humidity data. Wind trajectories were used to compare the predicted ozone conce ntration maximums against measured ozone maximums at downwind ozone mo nitoring stations. The r(2) value between observed and calculated down wind ozone was 0.38 and 052, for the 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. starting times, respectively, and the slopes of the least squares fit lines were 0.86 and 1.05, respectively, indicating unbiased results. These comparison s are well within the accuracy guidelines specified by the U.S. Enviro nment Protection Agency for ozone prediction models, and are also with in the accuracy of similar comparisons produced From Urban Airshed Mod el applications. Source sensitivity analysis was carried out to see th e effect of reducing source emissions on ozone formation. This modelin g approach demonstrates that accurate ozone predictive modeling does n ot have to rely on reported source emission inventories. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd