MODELING THE ETIOLOGY OF ADOLESCENT SUBSTANCE USE - A TEST OF THE SOCIAL-DEVELOPMENT MODEL

The social development model is a general theory of human behavior tha t seeks to explain antisocial behaviors through specification of predi ctive developmental relationships. It incorporates the effects of empi rical predictors (''risk factors'' and ''protective factors'') for ant isocial behavior and attempts to synthesize the most strongly supporte d propositions of control theory, social learning theory, and differen tial association theory. This article examines the power of social dev elopment model constructs measured at ages 9 to 10 and 13 to 14 to pre dict drug use at ages 17 to 18. The sample of 590 is from the longitud inal panel of the Seattle Social Development Project, which in 1985 sa mpled fifth grade students from high crime neighborhoods in Seattle, W ashington. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to examin e the fit of the model to the data. Although all but one path coeffici ent were significant and in the expected direction, the model did not fit the data as well as expected (CFI=.87). We next specified second-o rder factors for each path to capture the substantial common variance in the constructs' opportunities, involvement, and rewards. This model fit the data well (CFI=.90). We conclude that the social development model provides an acceptable fit to predict drug use at ages 17 to 18. Implications for the temporal nature of key constructs and for preven tion are discussed.