PEACE AND PROSPERITY OR DEMOCRATIC CHAOS - STUDY OF REGIME TRANSITIONS AND CIVIL-WAR 1945-92

Recent political changes throughout the world seem to be followed by e xtensive political violence and ethnic conflict. Current examples are found in the former Soviet republics and in several countries in Afric a. This article argues that in countries where political transitions t ake place, there is an introductory phase of uncertainty where violent confrontations between groups in the society are highly probable. Man sfield & Snyder have found a link between democratization and internat ional war; I argue for a similar link to domestic violence. This artic le examines the global relationship between regime transitions and dom estic armed conflict for the 1945-92 time period. Additional factors s uch as a country's level of socio-economic development and degree of e thnic fragmentation are also expected to have an impact on the politic al violence. The findings indicate that following major political chan ges countries become more prone to civil war and that the combination of a low level of socio-economic development and ethnic fragmentation further increases the danger of civil war.