THE CAR PARK - DIFFUSION-MODELS REVISITED

Growth in the car park in two countries, the UK and Japan, is studied with the help of a diffusion model of car ownership. The model interpr ets the complicated dynamics of the car park, in particular the transi tions between different stages of growth, in terms of three effects - product diffusion, income dispersion and income growth. From the insig hts gained in the analysis a specific parameterized non-linear lifecyc le model of car ownership is constructed which is of use in the invest igation of a range of issues - including the impact of social trends a nd green policies on car ownership.