Rates of depression were studied in a sample of over 9000 women who we
re participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childh
ood. Assessments of depression were made at 18 and 32 weeks gestation,
and at 8 and 32 weeks postpartum. Changes in depressive status across
time were modelled using latent Markov modelling methods. This analys
is showed that when classification errors were taken into account ther
e was relatively high stability in diagnostic status during pregnancy
and after pregnancy. However, the transition from late pregnancy to th
e early postnatal period showed evidence of increased instability and
remission of depression. The net effects of this were that rates of de
pression tended to decline following childbirth. The implications of t
hese results for a series of issues including measurement errors in de
pression reports and the prevalence of depression before and after chi
ldbirth are discussed.