LONGER FEMORAL NECKS IN THE YOUNG - A PREDICTOR OF FURTHER INCREASES IN HIP FRACTURE INCIDENCE

Aims. To determine whether femoral neck length, a risk. factor for hip fracture, is likely to increase in the coming decades in normal elder ly New Zealand women. Methods. Femoral neck length was measured from d ual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans of the proximal femur in white w omen aged 19-88 years (n=211). Since this length remains constant thro ughout adult life, it is possible to predict future trends in this ind ex in the elderly, from its measurement at the present time in younger adults. Results. Femoral neck length was inversely related to age (p= 0.018) such that a 3.7 mm (5.7%) difference occurred over the age-rang e of this sample. Conclusions. Femoral neck length in elderly New Zeal and women is likely to increase in the coming decades. As a result of the dependence of hip fracture risk. on femoral neck length, future ag e-adjusted hip fracture incidence will increase by about 50% over the next 50 years unless significant public health initiatives are taken, either to increase bone density or to reduce fall frequency.