MATCHING PHYSICIAN SUPPLY AND REQUIREMENTS - TESTING POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Managed care has been growing and likely will increase market share. T his movement will require fundamental alterations in the number and sp ecialty distribution of physicians. Under current production, future s upply does not appear well-matched with requirements, Although the ade quacy of generalist supply is of concern, the oversupply of specialist s is the overriding problem. Neither reducing the number of first-year residents nor increasing the generalist output alone would bring both generalist and specialist supply within requirement ranges. Combining an increase in generalist production to 50% with a reduction in first -year residents to 110% of the number of U.S. medical graduates would minimize the projected specialty surplus while maintaining generalist supply within the requirement range.