INTERSTATE MIGRATION OF THE US POVERTY POPULATION - IMMIGRATION PUSHES AND WELFARE MAGNET PULLS

This study evaluates the social and demographic structure of poverty m igration during the 1985-90 period based on an analysis of recent cens us data. Particular attention is given to the roles of two policy-rele vant factors that are proposed to be linked to poverty migration. The first of these is the role of immigration from abroad and its effect o n the net out-migration of longer-term residents with below-poverty in comes, from States receiving the highest volume of immigrants. Such a response, it is argued, could result from job competition or other eco nomic and social costs associated with immigration. The second involve s the poverty population ''magnet'' effect associated with State welfa re benefits (AFDC and Food Stamp payments) which has come under renewe d scrutiny in light of the impending reform of the federal welfare pro gram. The impact of both of these factors on interstate poverty migrat ion is evaluated in a broader context that takes cognizance of other s ociodemographic subgroups, and State-level attributes that are known t o be relevant in explaining internal migration. This research employs an exceptionally rich data base of aggregate migration flows, speciall y tabulated from the full migration sample of the 1990 US census (base d on the ''residence 5 years ago'' question). It also employs an analy sis technique, the nested legit model, which identifies separately the ''push'' and ''pull'' effects of immigration, welfare benefits, and o ther State attributes on the migration process. Our findings are fairl y clear. The high volume of immigration to selected US States does aff ect a selective out-migration of the poverty population, which is stro nger for whites, Blacks and other non-Asian minorities as well as the least-educated. These results are consistent with arguments that inter nal migrants are responding to labor market competition from similarly educated immigrants. Moreover, we found that the impact of immigratio n occurs primarily as a ''push'' rather than a reduced ''pull.'' In co ntrast, State welfare benefits exert only minimal effects on the inter state migration of the poverty population-either as ''pulls'' or ''pus hes,'' although some demographic segments of that population are more prone to respond than others. In addition to these findings, our resul ts reveal the strong impact that a State's racial and ethnic compositi on exerts in both retaining and attracting migrants of like race and e thnic groups. This suggests the potential for a greater cross-state di vision in the US poverty population, by race and ethnic status.