THE FOLLY OF USING EXTREME-VALUE METHODS IN FULL-SCALE EXPERIMENTS

Extreme-value methods have been applied successfully to meteorological measurements of wind speed to predict extreme events which have a giv en probability of exceedence. Attempts have been made to extend the me thod to give extreme values of loads on buildings. Although this metho d may have application to stationary flows, it is demonstrated here th at it is misleading to apply extreme-value methods to full-scale wind- load measurements where the flow is intrinsically non-stationary. This finding may also apply to many wind-tunnel studies where records are of insufficient length to satisfy the condition for stationarity or th e flow properties are not controlled adequately.