We show that ii the set of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs of a st
age game is convexified by the introduction of public random variables
, then forward induction loses all its power as an argument for refini
ng Nash equilibrium. We establish that our argument does not depend on
a convenient choice of off-equilibrium path beliefs. Journal of Econo
mic Literature Classification Number: C72. (C) 1996 Academic Press, In
c.