UNRAVELING IN A VARIETY OF INSTITUTIONAL SETTINGS

This paper presents results of simulation models of democratic governm ent in voluntary organizations. The models explore the impact of chang es in the institutions that control exit End entry into the organizati on as well as some basic parameters that determine the distribution of preferences. Results indicate the following. First, democratically go verned groups evolve in ways that are not predictable from information about the nature of the preferences in the society from which they ar e drawn. Rather, the long-run membership and policy stances of a group depend on an intricate evolutionary process that links membership adj ustments with democratically determined policy shifts. Second, the evo lutionary process is significantly affected by the overall willingness of people to join groups as well as the way that people are selected to participate in the group's first meetings. The implications for the formation of new interest groups are discussed.