PARTITIONING OF THE SEASONAL SIMULATION OF A MONSOON CLIMATE

The emphasis of this paper is on residue-free budgets of seasonal clim ate forecasts. It is possible to ask the following question: given a s easonal mean geopotential height simulation from a climate model, what is a breakdown of that contribution from different areas of the model physics and dynamics? In that context, the authors have examined the maintenance of a monsoonal 500-mb ridge, the eastward shift of the Tib etan anticyclone during an El Nino year, and the Pacific-North America n pattern. The salient results of this study include a substantial con tribution from the advective nonlinear dynamics toward the maintenance (positive or negative) of the seasonal climate.