PREDICTING DELIRIUM IN ELDERLY PATIENTS - DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A RISK-STRATIFICATION MODEL

Delirium is a common and serious complication of acute illness in elde rly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a mode l for predicting development of delirium in elderly medical inpatients who did not have delirium on admission. Consecutive admissions to an acute geriatric unit underwent standardized cognitive assessment every 48 hours. Delirium was diagnosed according to DSM-3 criteria. Indepen dent predictors of delirium in a derivation group of 100 patients were determined using stepwise logistic regression analysis; the predictiv e model comprised dementia, severe illness and elevated serum urea. Th is model performed well in a validation group of 84 patients. We concl ude that elderly medical patients can be stratified according to their risk for developing delirium using a simple clinical model.