DO POLLS REFLECT OPINIONS OR DO OPINIONS REFLECT POLLS - THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL POLLING ON VOTERS EXPECTATIONS, PREFERENCES, AND BEHAVIOR

Can political polls alter the choices voters make on election day? Pri or research on cognitive consistency suggests they can. This article d evelops a set of hypotheses based on cognitive dissonance theory conce rning the effects of exposure to the results of political polls on vot ers' expectations about the outcome of the election, attitudes toward the candidates, voting intentions, and choice. These hypotheses were t ested during experiments conducted during the 1992 U.S. presidential e lection and the 1993 New York City mayoral election. The results demon strate that political polls do alter voting behavior. Voters use polit ical polls as a way to maintain or move to a state of cognitive consis tency. Depending on which candidate voters expect to win as well as th e candidate for whom they intend to vote, polls can have no effect, le ad voters to change their expectations about who will win, or lead vot ers to actually change their preferences and their voting behavior. Th e results have important implications for public policy and for survey methodology.