COASTAL METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY - REPORT OF THE 3RD PROSPECTUS DEVELOPMENT TEAM OF THE US WEATHER RESEARCH-PROGRAM TO NOAA AND NSF

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) prospectus development teams (PD Ts) are small groups of scientists that are convened by the USWRP lead scientist on a one-time basis to discuss critical issues and to provi de advice related to future directions of the program. PDTs are a prin cipal source of information for the Science Advisory Committee, which is a standing committee charged with the duty of making recommendation s to the Program Office based upon overall program objectives. PDT-1 f ocused on theoretical issues, and PDT-2, on observational issues; PDT- 3 is the first of several to focus on more specialized topics. PDT-3 w as convened to identify forecasting problems related to U.S. coastal w eather and oceanic conditions, and to suggest likely solution strategi es. There were several overriding themes that emerged from the discuss ion. First, the lock of data in and over critical regions of the ocean , particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer, acid the upper-ocean mixed layer were identified as major impediments to coastal weather p rediction. Strategies for data collection acid dissemination, as well as new instrument implementation, were discussed. Second, fundamental knowledge of air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in situations where there is significant mesoscale variability in the atmosphere an d ocean is needed. Companion field studies and numerical prediction ex periments were discussed. Third, research prognostic models suggest th at future operational forecast models pertaining to coastal weather wi ll be high resolution and site specific, and will properly treat effec ts of local coastal geography, orography, and ocean state. The view wa s expressed that the exploration of coupled air-sea models of the coas tal zone would be a particularly fruitful area of research. PDT-3 felt that forecasts of land-impacting tropical cyclones, Great Lakes-affec ted weather, and coastal cyclogenesis, in particular, would benefit fr om such coordinated modeling and field efforts. Fourth, forecasting fo r Arctic coastal zones is limited by our understanding of how sea ice forms. The importance of understanding air-sea fluxes and boundary lay ers in the presence of ice formation was discussed. Finally, coastal f lash flood forecasting via hydrologic models is limited by the present accuracy of measured and predicted precipitation and storm surge even ts. Strategies for better ways to improve the latter were discussed.