RECENT TRENDS IN NONMETROPOLITAN MIGRATION - TOWARD A NEW TURNAROUND

Over the past 30 years there have been three unanticipated shifts in m etropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change and migration: the nonme tropolitan turnaround of the 1970s, with a migration balance favoring nonmetropolitan areas; the downturn of the early 1980s when nonmetropo litan areas lost net migrants as they did in the 1960s, and a more rec ent post-1990 recovery, with nonmetropolitan net migration rates once again above those of metropolitan areas. Partial explanations have bee n developed from the deconcentration and regional restructuring theore tical perspectives, but there is not yet consensus on how to explain t his sequence of three migration changes since 1970. There is a need fo r a general review of these trends, particularly given the recency of the latest change. Such a review is attempted here. Annual net migrati on estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonme tropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functio nal county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespr ead nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend t oward greater retention and/or acquisition of people in rural and smal l town areas is clear.