PREDICTING THE LOCAL ECONOMIC-EFFECTS OF PROPOSED TRIP-REDUCTION RULES - THE CASE OF SAN-DIEGO

The United States 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments set aggressive goals f or state-level compliance and mandates for the use of employer trip-re duction (ETR) programs for certain regions. San Diego County, Californ ia, has responded to this mandate with its own trip-reduction regulati on. The direct effects of the trip-reduction regulation fall into thre e categories, as follows: changes in spending, changes in costs, and c hanges in consumer amenities. The total effects on the local economy d ue to each of these categories are estimated using a Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) forecasting and simulation model for San Diego Co unty. This study is the first to use such a comprehensive methodology for an analysis of an ETR program. The study results show that spendin g effects on employment were positive, as local transit use replaced a utomotive-related expenditures and employees received cash incentive p ayments. The net increase in costs on business were modest with respec t to the overall size of San Diego's economy. Consequently, the negati ve effects on business location due to these direct effects were also modest. There were significant effects from the program due to consume r utility reductions because subsidies and charges distorted consumer choices.