SOI PHASES AND CLIMATIC RISK TO PEANUT PRODUCTION - A CASE-STUDY FOR NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

Phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in August/September are used in conjunction with a dynamic peanut simulation model to quantif y climatic risk to peanut production in northern Australia. Specifical ly, we demonstrate how a simulation model can assist to forward estima te production risk based on historic climate records and known atmosph eric conditions prior to planting a crop. The SOI phase analysis provi des skill in assessing future rainfall probability distributions durin g the growing season and thus allows an estimate of likely crop perfor mance. Such knowledge can provide valuable information for producers a nd processors. For instance, the analysis shows that for negative SOI patterns prior to sowing the expected median yield potential for dryla nd peanut production in northern Australia is 1.25 t ha(-1) or 27 per cent below the long-term median. Conversely, a positive SOI pattern sh ows a median potential yield of 2.11 t ha(-1), an increase of 23 per c ent over the long-term median. Other production variables, such as dat e and frequency of planting opportunities, also differ significantly d epending on SOI patterns.