HOW THE LOCAL SUPPLY OF DAY-CARE-CENTERS INFLUENCES FERTILITY IN NORWAY - A PARITY-SPECIFIC APPROACH

In order to assess how expansion of day care facilities affects fertil ity, the Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 was linked wit h individual register-based migration histories and time-series data o n day-care coverage rates in all Norwegian municipalities. Many factor s affect both the allocation of resources to day-care centers and a wo man's probability of giving birth. The local coverage rate is positive ly associated with the probability of advancing from parity two, after control for geographical region, degree of urbanization and other con founders. This effect of day-care supply, which is significant at low coverage levels, contributed to a moderate rise in third-birth rates a fter the mid-1970s. However, if the aggregate employment rate for wome n is also regarded as a confounder, the effect of day care may actuary be insignificant. Moreover, the effect fades at higher coverage level s. Finally, there are indications that second- and first-birth probabi lities decline with increasing provision of day care. These results su ggest that further efforts to improve the supply of private and public day care - which in Norway are likely to be motivated by non-demograp hic concerns - will have little stimulating effect on fertility, at le ast if the subsidies and quality of care remain unchanged.