THE SPREAD OF HIV INTO THE GENERAL-POPULATION OF THE USA - A SIMULATION

The spread of HIV from injection drug users and male homosexuals into the general US population is simulated, using survey data on sexual be havior. We estimate that approximately 150,000 persons are currently i nfected with HIV through heterosexual transmission, the majority of wh om are female partners of drug-using or bisexual men. The estimated nu mber of AIDS cases generated by the model is close to the CDC statisti cs for males, but much higher for females. We conclude that prevention efforts should be targeted towards these high risk groups rather than the general population.