Low-order mode coupling equations are used to describe recent computer
simulations of resistive-g turbulent convection that show bifurcation
s for the onset of steady and pulsating sheared mass flows. The three
convective transport states are identified with the tokamak confinemen
t regimes called low-mode (L-mode), high-mode (H-mode), and edge-local
ized modes (ELMs). The first bifurcation (L-->H) and the second bifurc
ation (H-->ELMs) conditions are derived analytically and compared with
direct solutions of the 6-ODE mode coupling equations. First an exact
expression is given for the energy transfer rate from the fluctuation
s to the sheared mass how through the triplet velocity correlation fun
ction. Then the time scale expansion required to derive the Markovian
closure formula is given. Markovian closure formulas form the basis fo
r the thermodynamic-like L-H models used in several recently proposed
models. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.